Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19852264e7fcfd75231ef1912eb2e044134feb15eb05c66f9f5b4d6f2f666f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed No | 1c | 2,020$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 306.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 181.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 176.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 135.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 32c | 128.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 9c | 114.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 103.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 68c | 96.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 62c | 96.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 66c | 92.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 66.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 48.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 46.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 40.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 40c | 37.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 64c | 30.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 45c | 25.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 64c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 79c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.