Fifa International · resolved market
Will Moldova vs. Italy end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1a3d6c6ec19f917a5301a3d5e045429569f500cb359e159afa7d2acdb53e8d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 35c | 2,819$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.05 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 2,168$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.55 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 5c | 2,146$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 1,779$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,115$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.82 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 64c | 932.65$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.32 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 65c | 847.97$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.5 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.68 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 47c | 773.04$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 60c | 727.11$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.96 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 46c | 566.65$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.36 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…ee67backed Yes | 7c | 544.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…a953backed Yes | 53c | 526.11$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 523.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 6c | 518.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 51c | 424.75$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.45 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 4c | 409.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 6c | 310.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 43c | 266.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 210.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…7e84backed Yes | 10c | 202.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 39c | 194.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 7c | 172.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…a363backed Yes | 61c | 139.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 58c | 133.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…1805backed Yes | 8c | 126.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 51c | 112$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes | 50c | 99.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked No | 70c | 91.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 73c | 90.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…1356backed No | 66c | 77.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734a…4933backed Yes | 46c | 55.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Yes | 53c | 36.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed No | 67c | 26.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moldova vs. Italy end in a draw?this page
- Will Italy win on 2025-11-13?Yes won
- Will Moldova win on 2025-11-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.