NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b1b1c801b9def75e2c4d567d5bee670686c4b1b15ba32cc57f3f956c73586c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 43c | 2,115$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.12 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 1,792$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.21 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…610abacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 55c | 904.09$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.84 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 58c | 725$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 57c | 381.28$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…a152backed Under | 43c | 244.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 42c | 208.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 61c | 163.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 72c | 137.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 127.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 58c | 126$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 42c | 102$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 27c | 97.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 72.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 79c | 64.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 72c | 59.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…e45abacked Over | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 58c | 19.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae0…bf77backed Over | 58c | 18.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Over | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. FlamesAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.