NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0918815dc547089228c7657d138f7bece295dc31f01fa499d27b24d8cc2692c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 4,356$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.42 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 47c | 2,680$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.47 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Under | 53c | 2,650$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.49 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 52c | 2,636$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.53 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 2,291$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.87 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed Under | 60c | 1,243$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.94 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 53c | 1,022$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.34 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 48c | 781.25$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Over | 11c | 756.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 12c | 741.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 52c | 670.07$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.63 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 663.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 604.76$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.23 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 593.53$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.96 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 49c | 525$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 51c | 468$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.32 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Over | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccea…a8ebbacked Under | 52c | 444$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 371$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 79c | 308$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Over | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 46c | 252.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…43f2backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Over | 47c | 212.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 212.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbb…2a6ebacked Under | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 47c | 167$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 23c | 69.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 51.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Under | 52c | 51.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…e354backed Under | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc953…01bfbacked Over | 46c | 41.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154a…b1b6backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cf…6d14backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Over | 47c | 26.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…95f9backed Under | 54c | 25.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 47c | 24.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…3c33backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…891abacked Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. FlamesAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.