NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00672e9c6c5aaaaa0bd0ee5b9c5338850a4a26b6c988153325c2d4326fe04f1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74a…a91cbacked Under | 50c | 1,611$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.09 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,035$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.72 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 24c | 614.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.38 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 49c | 507$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 404.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 53c | 400$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.95 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 370$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 329.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Under | 80c | 251.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 52c | 238$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 53c | 237.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 48c | 203$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…f155backed Under | 67c | 187.97$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Under | 69c | 134.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 24c | 114.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 39c | 42.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 45c | 39.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 35.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 63c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…49afbacked Under | 72c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. FlamesAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.