TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No7c2,714$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.512,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes48c1,878$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.171,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No48c688.13$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No51c636$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c339.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c220.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No53c215$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.952,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c207.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.764,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c189.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes55c184$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.671,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No52c163.75$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.364,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No47c154.73$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.322,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No28c137.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes62c106$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.717028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes68c104.33$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.485,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.551,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No52c99.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes56c98.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7581558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No51c98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9321472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c95.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes54c92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3222740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c90.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.138,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes48c90$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.83452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa71d…29f0backed No48c86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.322240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No28c85.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked No36c77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6213048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No45c76.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3427…2ff7backed No40c74.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.774247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No54c74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb64…ec3abacked No41c72.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes58c72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1214151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x694d…3ee2backed No60c69.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.63467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No33c63.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes77c62.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3126344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No54c61.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.271,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes55c60.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2219042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No44c59.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.221,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.34,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No54c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6719648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed No50c53.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8411027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No49c53.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.34,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7868867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes51c48.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.671,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a22…1ccfbacked Yes52c48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.041353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No48c45.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.422,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No48c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No41c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0417352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6758138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes48c41.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6612438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes71c40.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8137465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No49c40.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No54c40.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.781,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c39.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.864,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes62c38.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7212660.3%76 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No53c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8177…e5d4backed No52c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.248976.4%68 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No30c34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.071,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes72c33.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.271,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0d…849cbacked No49c32.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes46c32.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5952446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No47c31.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.764,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No48c31.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No49c30.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No50c30.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.182,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes46c28.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4854335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No45c26.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0125758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes55c26.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.012,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes48c25.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.628368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No45c25.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4331866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.353542.9%15 W · 20 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes49c24.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2825342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No51c23.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.615246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.816946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2515062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.413351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes59c19.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8210166.3%67 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes72c18.43$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.161573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No60c18.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8327754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.