Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1bba262d7309544f1be6eeebe9e417392bb2aee8b3168759861f7933972b616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 7,916$6,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.1 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Yes | 10c | 6,331$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 27c | 4,735$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.85 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 1,753$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.72 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,639$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.32 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…d527backed No | 77c | 1,337$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b8…a992backed Yes | 23c | 1,335$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…156cbacked Yes | 23c | 745$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…8d9abacked Yes | 23c | 619$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 78c | 471.84$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…2951backed Yes | 23c | 467$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 24c | 417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…c28dbacked No | 77c | 408$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 77c | 385.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…0e21backed No | 77c | 364$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…c052backed No | 77c | 337$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…3c59backed No | 77c | 259$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…3a46backed No | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…5694backed No | 77c | 208$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 70c | 205.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed No | 76c | 203.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 31c | 165$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 23c | 134.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 126$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1e40backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 77.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 32c | 77.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked No | 78c | 44.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 76c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked No | 78c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked No | 78c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 69c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
- Will Rangers FC win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.