TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,328 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals32c11,897$3,826 inWon+$8,071.2110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Atlanta Braves69c6,342$4,376 inLost-$4,376.121,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Atlanta Braves64c2,771$1,773 inLost-$1,773.0628258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Atlanta Braves69c710.51$490 inLost-$490.2520456.9%116 W · 88 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Atlanta Braves69c361$249 inLost-$249.0917659.7%105 W · 71 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Atlanta Braves69c340.32$235 inLost-$234.8213255.3%73 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Atlanta Braves69c241$166 inLost-$166.297568%51 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+25.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Atlanta Braves69c217.39$150 inLost-$15030554.4%166 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Atlanta Braves69c211.07$146 inLost-$145.6412855.5%71 W · 57 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Atlanta Braves68c154$105 inLost-$105.445853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Atlanta Braves69c144.93$100 inLost-$10020156.2%113 W · 88 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves56c140$79 inLost-$7911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed St. Louis Cardinals35c106$37 inWon+$68.891,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Atlanta Braves69c101.42$70 inLost-$69.988660.5%52 W · 34 L+10.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Atlanta Braves69c100.43$69 inLost-$69.318151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals40c100$40 inWon+$60.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Atlanta Braves69c90$62 inLost-$62.19557.9%55 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Atlanta Braves69c89.64$62 inLost-$61.855556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked St. Louis Cardinals45c80$36 inWon+$4441236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed Atlanta Braves69c63.39$44 inLost-$43.748964%57 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Atlanta Braves69c42.03$29 inLost-$2913558.5%79 W · 56 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Atlanta Braves69c28$19 inLost-$19.3231848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…b898backed Atlanta Braves60c17.95$11 inLost-$10.713946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.