TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals59c23,912$14,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,883.7410,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Atlanta Braves39c19,928$7,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,869.631,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves59c6,059$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,557.1112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals37c3,191$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.592,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves75c1,018$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.5111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves62c645.65$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.556,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves40c331.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.398,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed St. Louis Cardinals61c276.02$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0452228%146 W · 376 L-57.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals37c271.64$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.132,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f5…42cabacked Atlanta Braves79c260.64$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.915565.5%36 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed St. Louis Cardinals33c241.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.519839.4%78 W · 120 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals56c209.91$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.684,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Atlanta Braves42c190$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.820944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals36c185.94$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1198,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves11c184.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.034,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c6…737abacked Atlanta Braves78c136.26$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7510142.6%43 W · 58 L-13.9wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed St. Louis Cardinals40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Atlanta Braves64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Atlanta Braves63c119.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5951646.9%242 W · 274 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals33c111.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.679,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Atlanta Braves63c111.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7067449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Atlanta Braves53c94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3611535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.8wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked St. Louis Cardinals38c92.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.51,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals52c78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.445,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals37c76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.942,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked St. Louis Cardinals41c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.319165.9%60 W · 31 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed St. Louis Cardinals37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.152852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Atlanta Braves56c66.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1947552.4%249 W · 226 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked St. Louis Cardinals37c65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.951,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0a…75acbacked Atlanta Braves63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4046546%214 W · 251 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Atlanta Braves63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves64c60.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3946759.7%279 W · 188 L+2.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals56c60.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6431848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals37c59.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.473,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals37c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1346854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals37c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1372154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals36c49.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.393,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals37c48.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.642,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked Atlanta Braves63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed St. Louis Cardinals59c47.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6350954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed St. Louis Cardinals52c45.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6842047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves38c40.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.445,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Atlanta Braves54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5524448.8%119 W · 125 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Atlanta Braves64c33.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4635668.8%245 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Atlanta Braves64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031350.2%157 W · 156 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked St. Louis Cardinals51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4118444%81 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals49c28.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.366,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c77…8d9cbacked Atlanta Braves41c27.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves49c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…5275backed Atlanta Braves80c25.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.023073.3%22 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves63c22.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc93d…23d5backed St. Louis Cardinals60c21.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.819756.9%112 W · 85 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…6468backed Atlanta Braves63c20.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.