MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x652da0aea240a683de3cc63544cac2c9be7004d918465d6e2e5a9d4d024da24f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 2,420$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.79 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 55c | 2,027$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.31 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 1,458$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.65 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,053$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.86 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 48c | 1,036$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.36 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 53c | 945.51$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.39 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 857$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.22 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Under | 49c | 503.16$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 465.4$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…b07bbacked Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Under | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 14c | 244$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 235.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 140.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 54c | 129.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 98.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 47c | 58.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 49c | 51.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 38c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 50.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 37c | 46.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 76c | 46.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 46.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 37c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 62c | 26.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 53c | 19.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 15.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 16.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.