TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,810 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x547f…2937backed Under73c14,159$10,336 inWon+$3,822.8313856.5%78 W · 60 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over28c8,482$2,400 inLost-$2,400.4411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over34c8,214$2,765 inLost-$2,764.7310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3839backed Under53c2,828$1,500 inWon+$1,328.293946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under62c500$310 inWon+$1907352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over29c177.93$52 inLost-$51.61,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Over50c127.25$64 inLost-$63.911,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a96…b71dbacked Over29c121.03$35 inLost-$35.110742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over29c100$29 inLost-$29.33,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x352b…abd8backed Under61c100$61 inWon+$398740.2%35 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over30c96$28 inLost-$28.455750.9%29 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over29c95.66$28 inLost-$27.741,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Under42c92$39 inWon+$53.3634443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Under45c91.11$41 inWon+$50.1154651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under55c59.25$33 inWon+$26.55,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Under48c52.08$25 inWon+$27.0816144.1%71 W · 90 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under47c42.18$20 inWon+$22.3574657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Over37c40$15 inLost-$14.818444%81 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Over43c39.44$17 inLost-$16.916552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under57c34.44$20 inWon+$14.8131848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Under65c30$19 inWon+$10.659355.9%52 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over35c29.3$10 inLost-$10.361,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6f…fe71backed Under58c25$15 inWon+$10.53522.9%8 W · 27 L-9.0wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over62c17.65$11 inLost-$10.942,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.