Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d29f09c35942116da80d82e6df6bc2dfd4fc80e448036c402f70ff307c5671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 5c | 484.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 58c | 295.64$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.63 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…c80bbacked Yes | 19c | 281.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 276.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 263.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 223.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 13c | 210.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 20c | 178.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 15c | 167.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 143.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 24c | 138.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked Yes | 45c | 125.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 37c | 123.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 115.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x251f…0a14backed Yes | 21c | 111.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 110.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 107.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 51c | 100.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 14c | 99.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…6012backed No | 40c | 94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 21c | 90.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…c390backed Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 65c | 74.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 15c | 69.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…2465backed Yes | 24c | 56.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 45c | 52.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc07…cd29backed Yes | 31c | 46.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 42c | 45.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 48c | 44.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 63c | 43.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 41.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…aeb4backed Yes | 70c | 41.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.