Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc25cfded584ece1256288bb70924ef0d28422e924c211b7818e7dfec029c73b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 327.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 310.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 243.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 73c | 235.29$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 178.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Yes | 53c | 178.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 168.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…cdc7backed Yes | 7c | 163.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 154.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 122.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 39c | 100.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 99.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 18c | 94.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 34c | 94.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed No | 50c | 91.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 37c | 82.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 65c | 73.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 73.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 39c | 73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 16c | 72.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 72.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…ceeabacked Yes | 51c | 66.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 78c | 64.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 63.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 31c | 63.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 52c | 63.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 61c | 57.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 37c | 47.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…e7c8backed No | 58c | 40.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 37.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 32.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…2d89backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 35c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 39c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 25.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.