College Football · resolved market
Will Iowa beat UCLA by 7 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2636fe6f9ebfebcb049d5ba94b72b8fd114423785fcbe509c0999f95c693b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 47c | 2,555$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.15 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 46c | 2,333$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.81 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,902$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,497$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed No | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d5…a34fbacked Yes | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…96a9backed Yes | 54c | 280.22$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…0387backed Yes | 54c | 273.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db4…487abacked Yes | 54c | 226.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 55c | 209.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…f091backed Yes | 54c | 181.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…535fbacked Yes | 53c | 170.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…cca6backed Yes | 54c | 157.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d51…df73backed Yes | 54c | 103.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48d…9f73backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 43c | 93.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…d295backed Yes | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed No | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iowa beat UCLA by 7 or more points?this page
- Will Iowa and UCLA combine for 45 or more points?Under won
- Will Iowa beat UCLA?UCLA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.