MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc295ca9c1e69394502752987971673ab415ae3009093dbe4fcfc19bbea5b559c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 59c | 2,594$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 829.87$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 717.5$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.45 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 630.28$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 518.65$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 52c | 368.06$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.58 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 42c | 275$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 235.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 39c | 158$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 56c | 142.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 127.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 127.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Under | 77c | 107.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 78.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 45c | 71.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 66.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 46c | 50.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 48c | 48.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…401fbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 34.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 34.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa129…0838backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 39c | 33.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.