MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d551144c04c4437d4fb3027cedf9070e981c793c55ddc3617ea817d89db6262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 12,726$5,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,197.49 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 12,037$6,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,330.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 52c | 6,250$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 57c | 6,140$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.35 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 37c | 4,953$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,120.37 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 4,953$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 55c | 789.65$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.34 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 45c | 779$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.55 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 776.47$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 56c | 492$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 332.92$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 318.58$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 51c | 122.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…1029backed Over | 51c | 121.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 109.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 52c | 107.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Under | 79c | 107.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 60c | 102$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 99.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 88.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 43c | 86.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Over | 51c | 63.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 58.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 57.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 42.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 35.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 50c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…b2afbacked Under | 54c | 25.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 49c | 22.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 56c | 20.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 67c | 19.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…82fcbacked Under | 57c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.