Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc29a309552ac460e86491ed3b1a68e29c904fe95ac8d1219ca29b8f10561a6bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 61c | 1,994$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.35 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 61c | 1,615$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 63c | 1,545$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 46c | 1,442$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.33 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 36c | 1,250$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.2 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 38c | 945.21$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.03 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 597.16$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 4c | 580$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 46c | 471.26$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.67 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Yes | 66c | 329.64$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 55c | 258.44$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 64c | 156.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 63c | 79.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 50c | 68.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 28c | 67.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 61c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…2b86backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 61c | 35.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.