Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a9875fbf49950b3b28ccf721ea51d2e3b74781e449ba62e50343238fb01994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 422.01$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 25c | 256.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.58 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 65c | 224.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 55c | 222.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 198.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 34c | 179.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 22c | 173.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 168.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 28c | 160.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 149.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 24c | 148.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 148.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 77c | 137.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 29c | 127.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 77c | 122$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 119.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…ee20backed Yes | 23c | 117.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 61c | 113.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 29c | 102.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 33c | 94.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 85.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 66c | 78.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 68.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 67.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 54.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 28c | 53.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 51.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 26c | 50.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 65c | 47.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 45.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 44.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b136backed Yes | 39c | 42.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…9f0fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 36c | 36.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 66c | 34.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 31.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…10cbbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed No | 75c | 29.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 75c | 28.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 73c | 22.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…543fbacked Yes | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…23dbbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 79c | 13.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 57°F or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.