Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 57°F or below on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00b78c3b55e908b9659bf1b75883e119ab50389715da6852096df8cc9aec37c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 32c | 490.14$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 283.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 58c | 243$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 237.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.33 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 72c | 207.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 44c | 178.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed Yes | 35c | 157.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 143.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 50c | 121.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 35c | 117.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 109.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 65c | 107.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed No | 46c | 106$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 99.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 66c | 92.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 71c | 91.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 66c | 91.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed No | 69c | 86.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 72c | 84.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 43c | 76.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 48c | 75.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 75.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 30c | 72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…8fb0backed Yes | 32c | 71.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…ee20backed Yes | 64c | 68.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked No | 30c | 67.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 63.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 29c | 62.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…6338backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 39c | 59.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 67c | 55.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 66c | 51.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…a381backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 36c | 49.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 43c | 46.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 42c | 45.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…4212backed No | 60c | 45.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 33c | 45.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 30c | 42.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 40.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 64c | 39.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…56b8backed Yes | 41c | 36.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…ec74backed No | 63c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 34.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 42c | 31.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…8999backed Yes | 78c | 29.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 76c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed No | 37c | 27.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed Yes | 37c | 26.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…96bdbacked Yes | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 76c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed Yes | 68c | 20.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…ec38backed Yes | 59c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…7c92backed Yes | 63c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…e40cbacked No | 76c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 57°F or below on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.