MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b39ed4b400a699fd1b3eb0143140e8821ba7cf68d474fadbabbc75bc0692a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Rangers | 53c | 32,018$16,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,969.43 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Royals | 47c | 27,062$12,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,343.54 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rangers | 6c | 14,652$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.19 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Royals | 45c | 8,067$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,436.87 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Rangers | 55c | 5,478$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.15 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rangers | 15c | 2,889$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.25 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Rangers | 15c | 2,629$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Rangers | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 45c | 1,081$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.69 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…7f02backed Rangers | 54c | 1,041$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Rangers | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 44c | 999.97$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.98 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Rangers | 56c | 966.18$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.06 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Rangers | 20c | 740$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Rangers | 6c | 566.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rangers | 18c | 506.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Rangers | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Royals | 43c | 499.89$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.94 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Rangers | 11c | 499.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rangers | 55c | 473.35$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.34 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…51c6backed Royals | 74c | 443.14$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Rangers | 25c | 316.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Royals | 78c | 315$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Rangers | 23c | 252.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Royals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Royals | 45c | 222.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 234 | 44.9%105 W · 129 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Rangers | 55c | 199.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rangers | 54c | 199.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 23c | 196.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Royals | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…49c3backed Rangers | 57c | 175.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Rangers | 22c | 169$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rangers | 22c | 131.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…ae27backed Rangers | 57c | 117.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf067…5d54backed Rangers | 57c | 117.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…f5aabacked Royals | 45c | 113.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…fe5fbacked Royals | 45c | 107.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…7bbebacked Rangers | 57c | 100.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Royals | 44c | 99.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…6730backed Royals | 45c | 99.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Rangers | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Rangers | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Royals | 45c | 89.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rangers | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…f648backed Rangers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Rangers | 37c | 77.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0fe8backed Rangers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…d72fbacked Royals | 46c | 60.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…9929backed Royals | 45c | 57.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Rangers | 55c | 55.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…487dbacked Rangers | 55c | 50.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…568cbacked Rangers | 57c | 50.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…adb7backed Rangers | 57c | 44.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f85…da50backed Royals | 45c | 40.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Royals | 44c | 33.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Royals | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7c…2d20backed Royals | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Royals | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Rangers | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.