Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b4e352e34c1b058618137038ba8934f22bfcc48da43f6d652943ebaae47e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,469 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,320$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 1,044$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 892.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 6c | 498$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 278$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…9cf0backed Yes | 13c | 275.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 8c | 183.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 7c | 174.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 151.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 18c | 139.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 14c | 136.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 13c | 120.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 115.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…fe28backed Yes | 13c | 108.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked Yes | 13c | 104.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b4…1bbbbacked Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 46.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 34.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.