Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcef9be41f2bf8d9dd10fbbe31cbc7b713a776173340c6c49069b5a4654fd9009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,293 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb614…e5ffbacked Yes | 23c | 4,017$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ad91backed No | 77c | 1,358$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…cce7backed No | 77c | 1,334$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…9135backed No | 77c | 1,325$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 72c | 1,168$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.39 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 923.97$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 516.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 427.12$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.45 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 278$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 32c | 181.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 168.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 63c | 162.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 161.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 140.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 40c | 136.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f5…8158backed Yes | 40c | 117.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 25c | 110.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 37c | 108.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 75c | 106.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 106.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 79c | 94.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 90.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 31c | 89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 72.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 27c | 68.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 68.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 65.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 60.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 67c | 52.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 47.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 47.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 46.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Yes | 47c | 42.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c774backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 38.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 45c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 42c | 28.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 43c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 60c | 23.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 71c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 76c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 76c | 21.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 75c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…b707backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.