Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6832f021a2780e6c16d238c4ce145ec9c64ab818823d51f7d8beea03399d21e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,735 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc723…3b0abacked Yes | 27c | 3,903$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 1c | 3,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…516ebacked No | 73c | 1,325$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…fbcabacked No | 73c | 1,322$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…adeabacked No | 73c | 1,256$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 780.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 14c | 655.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 33c | 338$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 308.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.23 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 278$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.06 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 76c | 267.16$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 71c | 208.31$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 196.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 177.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 40c | 162.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 74c | 159.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…b45abacked No | 69c | 158.77$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 156.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 38c | 139.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 136.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…d12abacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 121.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 19c | 120.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 36c | 104.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 54c | 104.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 99.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 57c | 86.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 39c | 79.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 38c | 78.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 76.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed Yes | 18c | 65.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 63.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 57c | 63.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 70c | 51.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 26c | 50.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 52c | 49.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 49.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…03ffbacked No | 61c | 47.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 71c | 42.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 39.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f5…8158backed No | 64c | 37.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 68c | 36.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…6435backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 69c | 31.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 49c | 26.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…d84abacked Yes | 41c | 25.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 77c | 18.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 68c | 16.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.