Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6dbe1f6b6acb5bbd619fd4197251ddc2f6237dc5a2867eb11308a90e16207c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,105 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 19c | 2,100$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.99 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 1,170$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 973.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 31c | 800.6$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 515.17$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 477.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 331.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 284.05$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 278$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 277.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 235.04$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked Yes | 11c | 204$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 182.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 77c | 177.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 22c | 149.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 24c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 21c | 121$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 77c | 96.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 86.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 22c | 76.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 71c | 75.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 28c | 71.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 38c | 71.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 70.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 76c | 66.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 18c | 58.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 57.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 80c | 51.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 45.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 77c | 45.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…5525backed Yes | 34c | 44.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 71c | 36.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…8ba9backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 33.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 69c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 74c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 27.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 78c | 27.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 78c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.