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Tennis · resolved market

Santos: Guido Justo vs Luis Felipe Miguel

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Guido Justoof Guido Justo, Luis Felipe Miguel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,242 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Luis Felipe Miguel8c7,132$596 inLost-$595.929,26736.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L-199.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Guido Justo74c1,894$1,398 inWon+$496.674,64767.7%3,147 W · 1,500 L+308.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Luis Felipe Miguel27c1,766$472 inLost-$472.454,80349.5%2,379 W · 2,424 L+174.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Luis Felipe Miguel10c815.91$83 inLost-$82.616,70050.8%3,401 W · 3,299 L+267.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Luis Felipe Miguel7c787.86$55 inLost-$55.055,07541.5%2,104 W · 2,971 L-83.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Luis Felipe Miguel23c718.93$168 inLost-$167.5511,87743.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L+19.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Luis Felipe Miguel35c197.7$69 inLost-$69.31,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Guido Justo74c181.88$135 inWon+$46.412,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Luis Felipe Miguel18c171$31 inLost-$30.781,89544.9%851 W · 1,044 L+38.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Guido Justo71c164.52$117 inWon+$47.855,48656.3%3,088 W · 2,398 L+232.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Guido Justo64c154.63$99 inWon+$56.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-73.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe7c…41c1backed Guido Justo60c133.33$80 inWon+$53.331952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Luis Felipe Miguel32c103.32$33 inLost-$32.781,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Luis Felipe Miguel28c93.82$27 inLost-$26.6340548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Luis Felipe Miguel21c74.61$15 inLost-$15.4885624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Guido Justo69c72.48$50 inWon+$22.6850958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Guido Justo58c68.85$40 inWon+$28.8559050.5%298 W · 292 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Guido Justo74c67.55$50 inWon+$17.5540763.9%260 W · 147 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e0…2a1dbacked Luis Felipe Miguel44c58.29$26 inLost-$25.893756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fcb…207cbacked Luis Felipe Miguel23c56.77$13 inLost-$13.16642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Luis Felipe Miguel22c55.95$12 inLost-$12.1512053.3%64 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Luis Felipe Miguel24c44.3$11 inLost-$10.6319338.9%75 W · 118 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Luis Felipe Miguel46c43.48$20 inLost-$201,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…0436backed Guido Justo60c40$24 inWon+$1623754.4%129 W · 108 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Guido Justo78c33.71$26 inWon+$7.448,92142.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L-169.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf463…476ebacked Guido Justo80c31.25$25 inWon+$6.251770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+34.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52e7…dfaabacked Luis Felipe Miguel33c31.21$10 inLost-$10.35125.5%13 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Guido Justo76c26$20 inWon+$6.241,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6e…542dbacked Guido Justo73c19$14 inWon+$5.1319756.3%111 W · 86 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Guido Justo71c18.82$13 inWon+$5.382,11144.6%941 W · 1,170 L-51.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Guido Justo77c18.5$14 inWon+$4.253,95255.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L+107.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe4…f12fbacked Guido Justo80c18.31$15 inWon+$3.6660565.5%396 W · 209 L+18.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Guido Justo70c18.31$13 inWon+$5.569,44444.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L-249.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ba…a722backed Guido Justo66c15.19$10 inWon+$5.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Guido Justo71c15$11 inWon+$4.3537453.7%201 W · 173 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Guido Justo74c14.18$10 inWon+$3.692,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.