Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c24e3b9967b6cc92d413e38264dbe07f3cc57286b64c4fc54d6cce1b694b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 1c | 8,018$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 16c | 2,751$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.66 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,644$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,552$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,293$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,225$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,183$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 21c | 932.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.21 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 893.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 602.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Yes | 15c | 438.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 4c | 435.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 4c | 285$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 276.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed No | 80c | 270.99$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 19c | 209.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 125.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 79c | 109.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 90.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 19c | 83.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 82.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 18c | 68.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 79c | 64.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 80c | 63.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 21c | 54.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 47.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 79c | 41.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 35.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 77c | 33.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 79c | 28.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 75c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 76c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 79c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.