Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1e605576a134317256b2147eff48aea092d1d45e6ae6404db91ab7b43ae70f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb088…ee40backed No | 64c | 8,500$5,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,440 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed Yes | 36c | 8,500$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,440 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 37c | 2,116$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 43c | 1,730$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.02 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,504$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.09 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 1c | 1,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,076$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 28c | 946.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 34c | 905.85$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.85 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…5587backed Yes | 67c | 883.31$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 739.32$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.61 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 655.74$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 632.8$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.81 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 57c | 555.41$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.37 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 80c | 499.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.8 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 45c | 496.83$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.62 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 18c | 477.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.74 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 48c | 452.24$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.09 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 431.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.86 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 426.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 27c | 385.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.95 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 9c | 372.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked No | 65c | 335.52$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 33c | 288.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.43 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 29c | 288.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.45 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 66c | 276.83$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.51 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 38c | 263.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 29c | 254.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 42c | 246.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 238.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 236.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 37c | 223.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 223.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 219.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 38c | 211.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 31c | 210.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 208.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 32c | 208.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 17c | 207.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 203.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 31c | 201.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…44dfbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 42c | 195.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed No | 63c | 185$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…145cbacked Yes | 37c | 185$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 64c | 179.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 64c | 171.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 44c | 169.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 58c | 169.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 22c | 161.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 35c | 158.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes | 49c | 154.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 152.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 33c | 152$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 151.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 146.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 29c | 139.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 43c | 139.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 19c | 133.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 19c | 132.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 60c | 131.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 131.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…b4b9backed No | 54c | 129$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 128.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 61c | 126.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…ecc0backed Yes | 38c | 122.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cb…5e6fbacked No | 68c | 121.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 116.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 44c | 115.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836e…2497backed No | 65c | 106.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 102.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 46c | 98.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 96.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 40c | 95.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…e272backed No | 61c | 95.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes | 29c | 94.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…e904backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 37c | 79.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 38c | 76.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 34c | 71.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 24c | 69.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked No | 78c | 68.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 65.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 38c | 64.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 55.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.