Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedf057e8da4c1139199f82cdb5e8b86c208e56a5eff3a22e8fa4bee32b415d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 0c | 24,761$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes | 0c | 14,188$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3617…98b4backed Yes | 0c | 12,995$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 65c | 5,465$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.93 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed No | 33c | 4,767$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,209.96 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 40c | 2,234$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.96 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…5587backed Yes | 59c | 2,170$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 52c | 1,925$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.46 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 69c | 1,703$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.47 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 1,413$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 8c | 1,241$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 40c | 1,046$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.06 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 48c | 1,008$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 29c | 999.89$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes | 63c | 981.68$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.73 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 62c | 886.64$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.98 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 624.74$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.92 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 38c | 589.56$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 58c | 581.74$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.05 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 21c | 548.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 535.39$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 528.89$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cb…5e6fbacked Yes | 53c | 508.56$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 18c | 500.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 67c | 486.13$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.86 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…e75ebacked Yes | 52c | 453.62$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 29c | 445.58$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 73c | 432.85$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 401.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 383.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 44c | 373.43$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 370.52$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 14c | 369.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 57c | 355.63$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 55c | 336.86$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 330.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 34c | 321.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 54c | 320$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 300.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.76 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 70c | 287.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 284.14$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 41c | 283.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…e904backed Yes | 52c | 275.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 33c | 274.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 259.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 48c | 246.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 66c | 238.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 215.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 62c | 215$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 61c | 212.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 39c | 208.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 206.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…06e9backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa381…5fc5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…44dfbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 187.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 53c | 187.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 53c | 183.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 55c | 180.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 169.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 37c | 162.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…3165backed Yes | 60c | 158.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 156.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 33c | 155.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 33c | 150.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 39c | 141$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 133.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 53c | 129.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 20c | 129.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 128.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 37c | 126.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…ecc0backed Yes | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 48c | 124.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed No | 56c | 122.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 26c | 119.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…a26dbacked No | 73c | 118.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 58c | 116.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 50c | 115.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 34c | 115.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked No | 25c | 109.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 107.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 47c | 104.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…d8bbbacked Yes | 41c | 103.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 20c | 102.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 25c | 100.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes | 31c | 96.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 36c | 96.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked Yes | 16c | 96.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 39c | 81.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.