TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,953 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd43…51b1backed Yes0c24,761$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.761127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick15cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes0c14,188$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3617…98b4backed Yes0c12,995$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes65c5,465$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,534.932326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35a…e615backed No33c4,767$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,209.965824.1%14 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed No40c2,234$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.965853.4%31 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+188.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x24c6…5587backed Yes59c2,170$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No52c1,925$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.4648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes69c1,703$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.4727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes34c1,413$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.244,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5225725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes8c1,241$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes40c1,046$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.0614719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5a…9321backed Yes48c1,008$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes29c999.89$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9724010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes63c981.68$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.733228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No62c886.64$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.9818727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No65c624.74$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9217243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No38c589.56$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.3859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes58c581.74$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.052313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes21c548.42$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.989429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes51c535.39$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.153,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c528.89$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.853,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95cb…5e6fbacked Yes53c508.56$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes18c500.02$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.172339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed No67c486.13$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.8613250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x847f…e75ebacked Yes52c453.62$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfad4…379bbacked Yes29c445.58$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.073324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24dd…12afbacked No73c432.85$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.335846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c401.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes36c383.55$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3938840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No44c373.43$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5159742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No49c370.52$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.711,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes14c369.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5124216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes57c355.63$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes55c336.86$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.783234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes17c330.84$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.531,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes34c321.44$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9732548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes54c320$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.24037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No45c300.35$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes70c287.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c284.14$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.743,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes41c283.54$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.273432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9524…e904backed Yes52c275.29$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes33c274.25$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6232818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes37c259.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.823633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes48c246.09$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1187737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed No66c238.52$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5510150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes25c215.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.922,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes62c215$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.242240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes61c212.12$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.460851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd555…fdbabacked Yes39c208.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.531643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No74c206.3$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.361,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Yes53c200$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa381…5fc5backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7af9…44dfbacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c187.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.081,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes53c187.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked No53c183.22$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8711359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes55c180.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c169.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.832,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes37c162.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.344833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7516…3165backed Yes60c158.17$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.45366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes32c156.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.663,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes33c155.63$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9547834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes33c150.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes39c141$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes43c133.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes53c129.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.845127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes20c129.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8766144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes29c128.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8755919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes37c126.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3416651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb34…ecc0backed Yes52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes48c124.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed No56c122.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.213636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes26c119.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.721919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31d…a26dbacked No73c118.23$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No58c116.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed No50c115.58$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.325056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes34c115.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.777323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked No25c109.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9410227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No71c107.24$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed No47c104.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.976369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8683…d8bbbacked Yes41c103.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes20c102.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.325536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Yes25c100.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20f…fcaabacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4032444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes22c99.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes31c96.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes36c96.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6421448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7f…171bbacked Yes16c96.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.365052%26 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes39c81.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.893342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.