Tennis · resolved market
Quito: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Matias Soto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2cf9e27fb3b09b2c993b851addfae1fd77fee16ba360a13574b512ca1e928ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Sebastian Osorioof Juan Sebastian Osorio, Matias Soto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 10c | 14,571$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,143.93 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 16c | 4,639$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,889.53 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Matias Soto | 24c | 2,904$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.3 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matias Soto | 66c | 1,138$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.64 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Matias Soto | 59c | 1,085$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.66 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 54c | 1,031$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.74 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Matias Soto | 53c | 799.95$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.23 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 60c | 638$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 12c | 600$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Matias Soto | 41c | 580$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.08 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 11c | 318.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.75 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…9a30backed Matias Soto | 58c | 259.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 67c | 253$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 15c | 240$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Matias Soto | 42c | 203.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 58c | 201.38$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 58c | 162.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…2cc0backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 17c | 142.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 48c | 132.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 46c | 130.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Matias Soto | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Matias Soto | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Matias Soto | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Matias Soto | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 621 | 40.7%253 W · 368 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Matias Soto | 41c | 96.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Matias Soto | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -21.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Matias Soto | 43c | 69.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Matias Soto | 57c | 58.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 40c | 54.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Matias Soto | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 34c | 45.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Matias Soto | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 50c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Matias Soto | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Matias Soto | 67c | 19.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Quito: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Matias Sotothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Osorio vs SotoSoto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.