MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d77ea3636433d56099a311668d98a18af2046df7e518d22d9da7df43bca715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 65c | 413.78$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 43c | 288.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed No | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 44c | 165.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 31c | 146.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 32c | 117$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d5…a33bbacked No | 56c | 95.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 40c | 90.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked No | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed No | 69c | 71.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 35c | 63.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed No | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 61c | 54.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 55c | 47.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed No | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed No | 72c | 42.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed No | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 60 | 76.7%46 W · 14 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed No | 65c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangersthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Texas Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.