NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2da666a1c6127b8fd40eef9d1c282bb426ae3e909181e353b9e3a29a28848d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 51c | 38,658$19,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,784.34 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 20,785$10,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,183.73 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Under | 48c | 17,931$8,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,606.92 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Over | 52c | 8,989$4,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,314.87 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 8,800$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,224 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 7,041$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 51c | 1,890$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.04 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 48c | 379.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 49c | 345.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.14 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Under | 51c | 334.43$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…a630backed Under | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…090cbacked Over | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…3b9abacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Over | 52c | 40.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…6faebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5this page
- Ravens vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.