NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf010b12da8d43a0eb61d9f53c28dc3ec92f020c4cb25732fe0a5ef2317c184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Ravens, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a7…e661backed Ravens | 52c | 42,938$22,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,357.16 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chiefs | 48c | 34,361$16,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,867.78 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Chiefs | 47c | 10,692$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,666.59 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked Ravens | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Chiefs | 48c | 6,500$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.99 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Chiefs | 47c | 2,650$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.5 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,500$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Ravens | 52c | 1,148$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Ravens | 51c | 1,009$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.37 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Chiefs | 49c | 975.75$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.64 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Ravens | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Chiefs | 48c | 856.25$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.25 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ravens | 51c | 791.29$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.56 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Chiefs | 49c | 666$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.66 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Ravens | 47c | 646.83$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.17 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Chiefs | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Chiefs | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Ravens | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Ravens | 53c | 570$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Chiefs | 48c | 495.38$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chiefs | 39c | 327.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Ravens | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Ravens | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ravens | 52c | 261$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Chiefs | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Chiefs | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Ravens | 51c | 204$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Chiefs | 50c | 201.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Ravens | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Chiefs | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…a32fbacked Ravens | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Ravens | 52c | 188.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…ebc4backed Chiefs | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Ravens | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Ravens | 52c | 113.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Chiefs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Chiefs | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Ravens | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Chiefs | 49c | 97.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…ed8abacked Ravens | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Ravens | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ravens | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Ravens | 53c | 70.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Chiefs | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Chiefs | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Ravens | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Chiefs | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…4937backed Ravens | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…0e09backed Ravens | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 36.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Ravens | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Chiefs | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Ravens | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Chiefs | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Ravens | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)this page
- Ravens vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.