MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc30225d6f70fdbacd2d175295b83cc9f72f56601bcc6f0fed98c717fb879c049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 59,561$30,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,971.52 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 25,293$12,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,152.51 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 17,942$8,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,432.69 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 9,505$4,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,942.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 2,308$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 51c | 904.46$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.28 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 49c | 888$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 71c | 778.77$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 423.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 399$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 306.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 277.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 63c | 246.65$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 48c | 179.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 48c | 125.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 46c | 82.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Under | 32c | 50.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Over | 68c | 42.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 40.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 49c | 34.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…8be3backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 29.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 48c | 22.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Over | 51c | 20.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 57c | 19.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.