MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcdb6b0155fe44811bcb1420bd83c43656402a662c8ecb406e8cd6d869a6f47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 45c | 22,216$9,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,218.57 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 55c | 17,252$9,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,504.76 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 5,093$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.15 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 2,978$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked No | 56c | 1,771$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 42c | 964.12$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.19 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 58c | 800$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 57c | 522.23$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.45 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked No | 2c | 518.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 453.35$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 55c | 446.42$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.53 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 46c | 393$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 55c | 333$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 44c | 322.23$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.45 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 283.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6c…a2c3backed No | 58c | 274.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 45c | 261$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked No | 58c | 98.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed No | 18c | 84.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 17c | 63.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 50.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.