MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c4bb7d326d901c0193beb2ee85e8c1ce2e6f148609a2cdefed1989e625908c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 17,401$8,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,086.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 9,496$6,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 8,884$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 8,479$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…2351backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 6,435$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…5df7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 4,984$3,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 4,080$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 2,839$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.44 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 1,670$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 1,436$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.38 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 349.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ff5ebacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 274.6$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 195.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 22c | 190.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 22c | 187.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 171.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 128.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 22c | 117$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 88.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 78.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…bee1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 71.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 60.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 49.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 47.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 45.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 27.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.