Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31ba154b0b34543e95b53fac3cf6687cfbcbb46494f278bf0bcc91abcda2d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x409e…5028backed Yes | 44c | 237$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 41c | 190.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd5…9454backed Yes | 45c | 160.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa80f…b4c0backed No | 56c | 123$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc1…c74cbacked No | 56c | 114$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 79.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 32c | 65.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 60.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 52.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 35c | 51.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 61c | 50.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…cdb1backed No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…ccc2backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dac…d285backed Yes | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…c55fbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…328fbacked No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 41c | 32.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…141abacked Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…aa88backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…59f9backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…27d0backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…86b3backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896b…2dd0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 63°F or higher on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.