MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33fff2ae879fa00898ce0022e5236c12ba3d452ebd6e84fab0436c3411138aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 7,115$4,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,394.25 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 3,620$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.91 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 1,541$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 807.31$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.79 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 775.39$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 672.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 624.94$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 542$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 211.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 162.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 141.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 134.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 89.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 80.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…a913backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 51.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 31.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-5.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.