UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc341d94b79edaf6dfbbfb446e935c66afe38a6ea1897039700f26ed65c6bce25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 10,053$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,068.03 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 4,753$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.62 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…4790backed Over | 50c | 3,060$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ee…5506backed Over | 50c | 1,946$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Under | 52c | 1,025$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Over | 53c | 999.98$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 47c | 793.96$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.8 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 47c | 472.34$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.34 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 51c | 408$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 49c | 408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 64c | 158.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 135.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 53c | 124.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 54c | 119.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…cb86backed Under | 47c | 119.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 50c | 88.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 83.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 36c | 73.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 53c | 67.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 54c | 54.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 54c | 54.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 34.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Over | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…73c1backed Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Under | 47c | 22.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…2ffdbacked Under | 47c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 51c | 22.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, Prelims)Joanderson Brito won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.