NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc385b55881fcd70b47d130995d06141e051646478da8f75e63c22497f9d39991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc29a…7816backed Under | 44c | 4,127$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.07 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 56c | 2,921$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.15 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 1,426$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.96 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 799.98$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 56c | 521.57$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 56c | 434.64$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc3…d089backed Over | 42c | 384.48$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 42c | 384.48$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 369.75$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.46 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 28c | 323.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 13c | 221.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…292dbacked Under | 46c | 202.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a8…a34abacked Over | 56c | 199.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…be85backed Under | 45c | 194.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…c5b7backed Under | 45c | 193.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…09e8backed Over | 56c | 191.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…64f4backed Under | 45c | 182.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…bd95backed Over | 56c | 179.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 56c | 178.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 8c | 173.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 25c | 122.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 56c | 104.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…18c6backed Under | 46c | 101.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 100.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Under | 46c | 87.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Under | 46c | 72.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…5568backed Under | 46c | 72.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Under | 46c | 71.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…7e42backed Under | 46c | 58.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Under | 46c | 58.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 48.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked Under | 46c | 41.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 77c | 29.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 64c | 23.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Bruins vs. SabresSabres won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.