Middle East · resolved market
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc38a3b95eae2a5e1cdd05b0a3c46b63225db475674321110db494130d61b0391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 18c | 11,584$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.84 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 17c | 7,688$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.76 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 0c | 7,324$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 3c | 5,666$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 5,157$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.77 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 5c | 3,723$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 71c | 2,349$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.05 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 6c | 1,756$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 11c | 1,576$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.58 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,382$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 5c | 1,211$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,054$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed Yes | 11c | 885.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…05e2backed No | 78c | 808.02$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 750$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 3c | 694.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 7c | 630.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…66cbbacked Yes | 4c | 609.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…331ebacked Yes | 12c | 458.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 9c | 403.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 356.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…83a2backed Yes | 8c | 258.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…81e0backed Yes | 23c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 25c | 223.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 218.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed Yes | 21c | 211.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…665bbacked No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 9c | 122.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…e969backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…6c31backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 98.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 76.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…d3b7backed Yes | 21c | 73.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…856dbacked Yes | 17c | 67.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 74c | 65.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…dd71backed No | 79c | 62.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…aacfbacked No | 75c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…013ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…337ebacked No | 78c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.