NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3907c9c0e5f29ab10713bc52f9bb8325bbfeec6f5a0d7444af08ca6a64f7286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Rockets | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Bucks | 47c | 8,760$4,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,117.36 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Bucks | 47c | 8,106$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.65 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 53c | 6,931$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,257.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Bucks | 48c | 4,062$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.85 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Rockets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.94 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Bucks | 71c | 1,457$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.05 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 66c | 947$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rockets | 53c | 452$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 53c | 443$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 53c | 443$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Rockets | 53c | 425$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.75 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 47c | 311.92$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Rockets | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Bucks | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Rockets | 34c | 203.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abc…64f7backed Bucks | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…8bc4backed Rockets | 52c | 177$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc9…f722backed Bucks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rockets | 11c | 165$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Bucks | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…3ed3backed Rockets | 53c | 131.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bucks | 46c | 106.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Rockets | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Rockets | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Rockets | 53c | 81.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Bucks | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Bucks | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Rockets | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Rockets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…d7b2backed Rockets | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Bucks | 48c | 35.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…8abbbacked Rockets | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Bucks | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)this page
- Rockets vs. BucksRockets won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.