NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6486f1fc5b3827c67af12a5d27a8e432e7db5736f5a3137ce636df480902ba3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 50c | 57,238$28,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,561.08 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 48,422$24,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,208.42 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 15,000$7,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,471.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 50c | 10,483$5,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,238.55 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 3,394$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Under | 52c | 2,863$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.86 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,161$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 986.55$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.41 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 630.96$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 55c | 527.72$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.79 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 501.8$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 407$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…5a74backed Under | 52c | 326.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 50c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Under | 33c | 173.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -10.8wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…3047backed Over | 31c | 145.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 129.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Under | 51c | 57.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…c04ebacked Under | 51c | 40.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 34.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…f4d7backed Over | 51c | 26.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…c6b7backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…2581backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5this page
- Rockets vs. BucksRockets won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.