NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58bf91a1aefb19685737eeea8219465c5fe9fd3fd6153229dfcb6ad748440187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Rockets | 49c | 9,317$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,794.92 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Bucks | 51c | 6,096$3,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,108.99 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Rockets | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Rockets | 49c | 2,680$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.81 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Bucks | 51c | 2,455$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.97 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Bucks | 64c | 1,318$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.25 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 49c | 1,292$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 51c | 1,280$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.83 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Rockets | 48c | 1,100$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 51c | 1,080$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.77 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Bucks | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Rockets | 49c | 1,030$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.3 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Bucks | 52c | 961.83$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.15 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 51c | 854.27$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.68 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 28c | 569.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Bucks | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…f2a3backed Rockets | 49c | 409.47$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Bucks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rockets | 49c | 326$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…8babbacked Bucks | 52c | 317.29$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…8937backed Rockets | 48c | 310.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.9 | 470 | 28.1%132 W · 338 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bucks | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…3f80backed Rockets | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…3ed3backed Bucks | 52c | 189.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…fd54backed Rockets | 47c | 188$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096c…0e66backed Bucks | 53c | 183$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…0183backed Bucks | 52c | 181$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…de15backed Rockets | 48c | 177$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…abdcbacked Bucks | 52c | 171$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Bucks | 52c | 166.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Rockets | 49c | 113.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Bucks | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bucks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Bucks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d7…e943backed Bucks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Rockets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Bucks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Bucks | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…6c67backed Bucks | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Bucks | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rockets | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Rockets | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Rockets | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bucks | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…032dbacked Rockets | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Bucks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Bucks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Bucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Rockets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Bucks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Bucks | 54c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)this page
- Rockets vs. BucksRockets won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.