NHL · resolved market
KHL: Barys Astana vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ac85861a5f2f6b93a5f7de2247a999ced012f19f01b4fd51bd1616171eb59c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Barys Astana, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 4,352$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.35 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Barys Astana | 21c | 2,335$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.38 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Barys Astana | 22c | 500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Barys Astana | 24c | 418.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…33a9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 80c | 390.89$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Barys Astana | 21c | 380.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Barys Astana | 22c | 357.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 342.8$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Barys Astana | 11c | 338.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Barys Astana | 22c | 324$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Barys Astana | 22c | 243.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 225.88$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Barys Astana | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Barys Astana | 21c | 168.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Barys Astana | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Barys Astana | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…13dcbacked Barys Astana | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Barys Astana | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Barys Astana | 19c | 95.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Barys Astana | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b75cbacked Barys Astana | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Barys Astana | 21c | 85.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Barys Astana | 22c | 81.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Barys Astana | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 51.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…4391backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 36.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 33.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52b…a76fbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.