NFL · resolved market
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from any Other state?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ad8037b0349f2c11fb15e530d378ac8fa7fca93aa36c910cedadc55301867a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 54c | 309.4$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 69c | 264.79$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 54c | 243.89$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 151.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 35c | 133.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 130.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 53c | 112.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes | 72c | 91.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 73.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 58c | 53.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 45.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…b4c8backed Yes | 73c | 41.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…e198backed Yes | 73c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from any Other state?this page
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from California?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from New York/New Jersey?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from Texas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.