Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c61675b4e9131523896e456e688624ebc219e9b7e464465d18c9796e1f0b7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 659.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 272.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 260$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 227.08$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 35c | 212.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 168.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 162.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 113.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 86.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 70.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 65c | 69.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 17c | 65.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 60.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 26c | 47.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 78c | 36.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 33.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 78c | 31.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 30.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed No | 74c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.