TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,127 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c1,302$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes63c742.1$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.8524542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No36c605.05$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No38c465.04$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1988628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No44c430.03$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.574,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes54c367.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8964446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c341.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes63c259.99$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.21,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes63c252.8$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.934,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No27c227.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.172,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No46c209.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3924262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b46…8f13backed Yes63c180.15$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.652259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No50c169.49$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.791,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes80c168.1$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…541dbacked Yes61c164.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.22969%20 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes60c160$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…9599backed Yes75c159.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.892272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No42c156.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.992,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes65c154.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2519559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c138.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.784,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c116.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes75c101.87$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8727051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cc5…b430backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes66c98.24$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.493,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No55c95.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.233,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes66c89.24$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4919042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No38c82.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.642,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes44c82.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3637541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes62c81.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.853,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c75.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b04…6477backed Yes62c60.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.841650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No18c58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes46c55.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1947538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No40c53.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.091,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes58c52.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.892,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes61c51.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2019345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75f…f98bbacked No53c51.27$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.174647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4343…8deabacked Yes79c50.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.647661.8%47 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e34…224ebacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No39c49.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5721338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No38c49.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.928762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No45c48.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c48.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.334,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked Yes62c48.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.275667.9%38 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.474,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c46.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.512,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No50c43.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.721,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes66c42.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.518176.5%62 W · 19 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+29.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2faa…26c2backed Yes64c40.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.542147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes60c40.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.042,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.354555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0624451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.464346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes64c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.683345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes79c37.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.883865.8%25 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes79c37.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.881,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked Yes77c35.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1412060%72 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1655…08e1backed No38c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes47c34.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.23,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No41c33.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes55c32.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7225342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No54c31.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1551156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2558138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a9…78ebbacked Yes64c31.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.08683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2337465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes60c27.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.344,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes66c27.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2615556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes67c26.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes69c26.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0110044%44 W · 56 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x995f…3ebabacked No42c25.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.78666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x367f…ee28backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.552758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes63c20.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6314943.6%65 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf7…b963backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f7…e6c9backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked No55c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4513167.2%88 W · 43 L-0.5wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes60c16.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6714053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes64c16.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9681855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed Yes77c15.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6919663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.636046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.639538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.639048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd9…8df9backed Yes67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.951136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.