Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AS Monaco FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e02e870942c660509f2f3803dbccecdf0430464f6e8d078d7b1524c8cdb1d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $461,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $531,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 40c | 317,535$127,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127,014.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 61c | 182,592$111,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,008 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 47c | 66,468$31,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,234.68 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 42c | 43,727$18,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,522.76 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 60c | 30,000$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 8,230$5,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,761.14 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 63c | 4,237$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.69 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 1,110$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.11 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Yes | 51c | 999$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 34c | 882$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.12 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 67c | 511$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 499$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.26 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…230fbacked Yes | 60c | 476.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 51c | 269.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.21 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2accbacked Yes | 47c | 255.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 65c | 191.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 56c | 160.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9c…8fc7backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 98.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 66c | 76.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…1f96backed Yes | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…7ec2backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Yes | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…a6a9backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Monaco FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.