Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c3e46ed5cedc68f33bde08f64f920b9dfea7dc21691b47d37955196a57a8f9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 42,338$7,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,749.75 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 69c | 17,484$12,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,406.68 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 3,821$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.85 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 33c | 2,778$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.85 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,762$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.94 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 24c | 1,977$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.3 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,918$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.7 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 646.49$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.62 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 22c | 603.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 26c | 570$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 569.49$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 23c | 550$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 76c | 425$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked No | 76c | 421$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 377.69$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 25c | 276.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked No | 77c | 259.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…1733backed No | 75c | 203$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 196.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 188.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 22c | 150.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 61c | 122.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…285fbacked Yes | 9c | 119.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 24c | 111.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed No | 70c | 100.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 62c | 92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 27c | 91.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked Yes | 22c | 76.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked No | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…2f7dbacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 58.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 76c | 57.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…5eb3backed Yes | 57c | 57.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…0374backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…cadcbacked No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…da8abacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 34c | 36.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 43c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…8328backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-05?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?Yes won
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.