Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f4f78b6802660278f4ef04b1dec1f6ff06407616c6f5d27cf168c35fae1b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 797.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 74c | 736.66$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.97 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 489.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 321$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 262.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 215.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 214.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 154.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 154.32$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 65c | 149$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…fa0cbacked No | 37c | 136.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 37c | 131.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 119.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 62c | 116.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 114.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…7884backed No | 71c | 114.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 110.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 42c | 102.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 29c | 101.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 60c | 99.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 88.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 88.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 31c | 87.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 86.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 67c | 80.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked Yes | 65c | 71.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 51c | 69.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 31c | 68.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 66.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 38c | 64.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 68c | 59.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 59.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 55.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 53c | 55.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 50c | 53.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 69c | 53.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 52.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 27c | 51.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 47.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 67c | 44.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 42.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 42.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 40.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…7a46backed No | 55c | 36.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 30c | 33.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4eeebacked Yes | 70c | 28.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 27.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 26.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 76c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 77c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 70c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 78c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.